OH Leuven 0-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OH Leuven's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. OH Leuven's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for OH Leuven, 1 for Charleroi and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2026, ended OH Leuven 2–0 Charleroi — a OH Leuven win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 47% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 36% | Charleroi 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OH Leuven surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Charleroi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.942 / defence 0.936 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.59 | Draw 3.61 | Charleroi 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 35 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG OH Leuven 1.24 / Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.942 / def 0.936 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 35) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 39% chance of winning, Charleroi a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.94x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.61
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.39
1.14
Charleroi xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.14 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 74 games, going 18W 26D 30L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.34 PPG from 74 outings (27W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.34 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 11W 15D 11L across their last 37 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 9D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 26D 30L in their last 74 games (1.08 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 27W 18D 29L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.30 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OH Leuven and Charleroi, the earliest from February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 51%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (OH Leuven) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; OH Leuven have failed to score in 30% of games; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 54% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of OH Leuven's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 73% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat OH Leuven 0-2 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 36%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.08 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.