OH Leuven 0-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
OH Leuven's home record at Den Dreef: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. OH Leuven's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for OH Leuven, 1 for Charleroi and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with OH Leuven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 47% versus Charleroi 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 36% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.942 / defence 0.936 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: 60 OH Leuven games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 50% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 35 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG OH Leuven 1.24 / Charleroi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.942 / def 0.936 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Den Dreef.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Conference League Group - 35 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 39% chance of winning, Charleroi a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Record (7 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.94x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.61
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.39
1.14
Charleroi xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.14 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 74 games, going 18W 26D 30L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.34 PPG from 74 outings (27W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.34 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 11W 15D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.05 points per game from 37 outings (10W 9D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 26D 30L in their last 74 games (1.08 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 27W 18D 29L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.30 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 51%, Charleroi 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (OH Leuven) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; OH Leuven have failed to score in 30% of games; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 54% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of OH Leuven's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat OH Leuven 0-2 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 39% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 34%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 36%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.08 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.