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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KV Mechelen and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 9, as KV Mechelen and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.67 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 45% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 27%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 57%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights