KV Mechelen 1-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KV Mechelen at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KV Mechelen face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KV Mechelen and Charleroi meet at AFAS Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 9). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
KV Mechelen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, KV Mechelen have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Charleroi away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for KV Mechelen against 1.70 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from KV Mechelen's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) — KV Mechelen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Charleroi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, KV Mechelen edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2025, ended KV Mechelen 0–3 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KV Mechelen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KV Mechelen 55% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KV Mechelen 57% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KV Mechelen 1.67 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KV Mechelen attack 1.072 / defence 1.066 | Charleroi attack 1.073 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.113. Data: built from KV Mechelen's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: KV Mechelen 45% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 27%. Fair-value odds: KV Mechelen 2.24 | Draw 3.59 | Charleroi 3.65. KV Mechelen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KV Mechelen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KV Mechelen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (KV Mechelen's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KV Mechelen 80% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KV Mechelen vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 9 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KV Mechelen 45% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG KV Mechelen 1.67 / Charleroi 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: KV Mechelen attack 1.072 / def 1.066 | Charleroi attack 1.073 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: KV Mechelen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
KV Mechelen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Charleroi xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KV Mechelen vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does KV Mechelen vs Charleroi kick off?
KV Mechelen vs Charleroi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
KV Mechelen 1 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is KV Mechelen vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is KV Mechelen vs Charleroi part of?
KV Mechelen vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KV Mechelen a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KV Mechelen the favourite.
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both KV Mechelen and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KV Mechelen vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KV Mechelen's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.07x) against KV Mechelen's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from KV Mechelen's last 60 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KV Mechelen Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
KV Mechelen xG
Total xG
2.94
1.27
Charleroi xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KV Mechelen vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are KV Mechelen and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for KV Mechelen and 1.27 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for KV Mechelen vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, KV Mechelen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 29W 18D 27L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 27W 18D 29L from 74 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for KV Mechelen against 1.34 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, KV Mechelen have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 37 home games (16W 11D 10L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 9W 9D 19L from their last 37 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KV Mechelen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KV Mechelen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KV Mechelen
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
KV Mechelen (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KV Mechelen
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ KV Mechelen vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are KV Mechelen and Charleroi in coming into this match?
KV Mechelen have gone 29W 18D 27L in their last 74 games (1.42 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 27W 18D 29L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KV Mechelen at home or Charleroi away?
KV Mechelen's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KV Mechelen at home: 1.59 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KV Mechelen won KV Mechelen 5-2 Charleroi on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KV Mechelen have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KV Mechelen
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ KV Mechelen vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KV Mechelen and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KV Mechelen have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KV Mechelen and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen.
Who has won more matches between KV Mechelen and Charleroi?
KV Mechelen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KV Mechelen 60%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (KV Mechelen) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: KV Mechelen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Charleroi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KV Mechelen home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KV Mechelen vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KV Mechelen and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of KV Mechelen's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KV Mechelen and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of KV Mechelen's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KV Mechelen and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of KV Mechelen's recent matches and 62% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KV Mechelen and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 9, as KV Mechelen and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.67 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 45% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 27%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 57%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KV Mechelen's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.