Kortrijk 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kortrijk face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldensporenstadion plays host to Kortrijk versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 4W 1D 5L at Guldensporenstadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Genk (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Genk, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Genk winning.
It is worth noting that Genk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 43% versus Genk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | Genk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.23 xG and Genk 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / defence 1.065 | Genk attack 1.402 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.139. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Kortrijk games / 39 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 25% | Draw 28% | Genk 46%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Genk 2.17. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 25% | Draw 28% | Genk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Kortrijk 1.23 / Genk 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.703 / def 1.065 | Genk attack 1.402 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Genk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Genk xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Genk kick off?
Kortrijk vs Genk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Kortrijk 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Kortrijk vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Genk part of?
Kortrijk vs Genk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 25% chance of winning, Genk a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kortrijk and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
Record (6 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 5W.
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Genk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.70) and Genk's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.40x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
25%
3.94
28%
3.54
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.92
1.70
Genk xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
5%
21.55
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.70 for Genk, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 12W 9D 26L from 47 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 13L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 7W 4D 11L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kortrijk are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.57 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Genk in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 9D 26L in their last 47 games (0.96 PPG), while Genk have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.14 PPG; Genk away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Genk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-0 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
0
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Genk?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Genk 3-2 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kortrijk) and 50% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kortrijk's recent games and 50% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Genk tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Genk in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Genk 2-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.23 xG and Genk 1.70 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.06 against Genk attack 1.40 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 25% | Draw 28% | Genk 46%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Kortrijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 51%, Genk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.