St. Truiden 1-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and Gent meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gent have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gent have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gent are 0.90 PPG clear of St. Truiden in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for St. Truiden, 2 for Gent and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Gent — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 57% versus Gent 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 45% | Gent 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.47 xG and Gent 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.943 / defence 1.274 | Gent attack 1.200 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.089. Data: 39 St. Truiden games / 39 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 27% | Gent 40%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Gent 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 27% | Gent 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG St. Truiden 1.47 / Gent 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.943 / def 1.274 | Gent attack 1.200 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Gent (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Gent xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Gent kick off?
St. Truiden vs Gent kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Gent.
Where is St. Truiden vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Gent part of?
St. Truiden vs Gent is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 32% chance of winning, Gent a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both St. Truiden and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
Record (4 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Gent 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Gent (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.20x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.65
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.14
1.67
Gent xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.67 for Gent, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 15W 18D 16L from 49 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 12L across 49 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 8D 5L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gent's away record stands at 11W 5D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.94 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Gent in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 18D 16L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Gent have gone 25W 12D 12L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Gent away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.71 PPG; Gent away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, Gent have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 54%, Gent 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 46% (Gent).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 54% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 46% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Gent tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gent in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Gent share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as St. Truiden and Gent drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.47 xG and Gent 1.67 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Gent attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 32% | Draw 27% | Gent 40%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 45%, Gent 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Gent's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.