Dender 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Charleroi travel to DENDER Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender at DENDER Football Complex this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dender 1.50 PPG, Charleroi 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 62% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 56% | Charleroi 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.36 xG and Charleroi 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.840 / defence 1.140 | Charleroi attack 1.012 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.130. Data: 9 Dender games / 39 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 36% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 33%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Charleroi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dender 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 36% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Dender 1.36 / Charleroi 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.840 / def 1.140 | Charleroi attack 1.012 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Dender (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Charleroi kick off?
Dender vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Dender 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Dender vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Charleroi part of?
Dender vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 36% chance of winning, Charleroi a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dender and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and Charleroi in?
Dender (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.84) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.25
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Dender xG
Total xG
2.67
1.30
Charleroi xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dender and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Dender and 1.30 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 18W 12D 9L from 39 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 16L across 39 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.69 PPG, Charleroi on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 7D 16L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Charleroi away?
Dender's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.63 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dender or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charleroi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dender and Charleroi runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 58%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dender) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Charleroi in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dender's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dender's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Charleroi tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Charleroi 1-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.36 xG and Charleroi 1.30 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 36% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 33%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 56%, Charleroi 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.69 PPG, Charleroi 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.