Kortrijk 2-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Anderlecht meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk's home record at Guldensporenstadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Kortrijk, 1.50 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kortrijk, 2 for Anderlecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–4 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kortrijk — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 56% versus Anderlecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 49% | Anderlecht 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.91 xG and Anderlecht 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.872 / defence 1.234 | Anderlecht attack 1.007 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.295. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Kortrijk games / 58 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 19% | Draw 29% | Anderlecht 52%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Anderlecht 1.92. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 60% | Anderlecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 19% | Draw 29% | Anderlecht 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Kortrijk 0.91 / Anderlecht 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.872 / def 1.234 | Anderlecht attack 1.007 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Anderlecht xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Kortrijk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Anderlecht?
Kortrijk 2 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is Kortrijk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Anderlecht part of?
Kortrijk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 19% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kortrijk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Anderlecht?
Record (3 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and Anderlecht in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.87x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.01x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
19%
5.20
29%
3.47
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.52
1.61
Anderlecht xG
5.20
19%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
26.04
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.61 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 16W 14D 29L from 59 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 16L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 7W 7D 14L from 28 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 13W 7D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kortrijk are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Kortrijk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kortrijk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Anderlecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
3
Draws
4
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Anderlecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Anderlecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Kortrijk 0-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 54%, Anderlecht 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kortrijk) and 54% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 39%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 46% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kortrijk's recent games and 54% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk and Anderlecht finished level at 2-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.91 xG and Anderlecht 1.61 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.68, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 19% | Draw 29% | Anderlecht 52%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 49%, Anderlecht 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.