Oostende 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oostende vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oostende and Charleroi meet at Diaz Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Oostende's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oostende at Diaz Arena this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charleroi are 1.00 PPG clear of Oostende in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oostende have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oostende lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Oostende winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Oostende half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 52% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 61% | Charleroi 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 1.20 xG and Charleroi 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.759 / defence 1.381 | Charleroi attack 1.056 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.285. Oostende's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Oostende games / 58 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 52%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 1.92. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 60% | Charleroi 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Oostende 1.20 / Charleroi 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.759 / def 1.381 | Charleroi attack 1.056 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Charleroi xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Charleroi kick off?
Oostende vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Charleroi?
Oostende 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Oostende vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Charleroi part of?
Oostende vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 23% chance of winning, Charleroi a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Oostende and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): Oostende 1W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Oostende and Charleroi in?
Oostende (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.76) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.06x) against Oostende's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
23%
4.35
25%
3.96
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.08
1.87
Charleroi xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Oostende and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Oostende and 1.87 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oostende's recent record stands at 15W 11D 33L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 24L across 59 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oostende heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oostende have managed 9W 3D 17L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 5D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Oostende are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 15W 11D 33L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 1.03 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 0-3 on 24 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oostende have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oostende
1
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, Oostende have won 1, Charleroi have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Oostende 0-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 62%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Oostende and 76% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oostende have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Oostende's games and 59% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oostende vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Oostende's matches and 76% of Charleroi's.
Do Oostende and Charleroi tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oostende's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende and Charleroi finished level at 0-0 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 1.20 xG and Charleroi 1.87 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oostende fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.76 / defence 1.38 against Charleroi attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 23% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 52%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 61%, Charleroi 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.