Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 2W 2D 6L at Lotto Park — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lotto Park this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Anderlecht at 1.50 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Anderlecht, 0 for St. Truiden and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
St. Truiden trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 52% versus St. Truiden 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 52% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.907 / defence 1.100 | St. Truiden attack 0.986 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.294. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Anderlecht games / 58 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 28% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 50% | St. Truiden 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 28% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Anderlecht 1.09 / St. Truiden 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.907 / def 1.100 | St. Truiden attack 0.986 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kick off?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Anderlecht 3 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden part of?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 28% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Anderlecht and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.91x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
28%
3.61
30%
3.37
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.49
1.40
St. Truiden xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.40 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 20L across 58 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.66 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 13W 8D 8L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 13W 8D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or St. Truiden away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.62 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Anderlecht
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 55%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Anderlecht) and 31% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 45%; Anderlecht have failed to score in 28% of games; St. Truiden in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 38% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Anderlecht's recent games and 31% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 3-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.09 xG and St. Truiden 1.40 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 28% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 43%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 52%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.66 PPG, St. Truiden 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.