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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gent cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.15 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.29 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zulte Waregem landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 57% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 56%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights