🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 0-3 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.15 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gent fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.27 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 27% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 42%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 51%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.63 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights