Gent 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Group Arena plays host to Gent versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gent have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gent have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Gent 0W, Union St. Gilloise 1W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gent goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 55% versus Union St. Gilloise 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 51% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.15 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.026 / defence 1.037 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.273 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Gent games / 60 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 27% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 42%. Fair-value odds: Gent 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Union St. Gilloise 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 60% | Union St. Gilloise 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 27% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Gent 1.15 / Union St. Gilloise 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.026 / def 1.037 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.273 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Gent 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 27% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gent and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (4 meetings): Gent 0W | Draws 3 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in?
Gent (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gent's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.27x) against Gent's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
27%
3.64
30%
3.31
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gent xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gent and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gent and 1.47 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Gent have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 31W 23D 17L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 41W 19D 11L from 71 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Gent against 2.00 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gent have posted 1.79 PPG from 34 outings (17W 10D 7L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 16W 12D 6L from 34 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gent are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 31W 23D 17L in their last 71 games (1.63 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 41W 19D 11L in their last 71 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Gent's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.79 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Gent or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gent
6
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 68%, Union St. Gilloise 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Gent) and 53% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Gent's games and 59% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Gent's matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Gent and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Gent 0-3 at Planet Group Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.15 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gent fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.27 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 27% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 42%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 51%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.63 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.