Gent 0-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gent face St. Truiden.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Gent and St. Truiden meet at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group - 33). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

Gent (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Gent have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

St. Truiden have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gent against 1.20 for St. Truiden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Gent's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) — Gent have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St. Truiden in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Gent 1–2 St. Truiden — a St. Truiden win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Gent half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 52% versus St. Truiden 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 54% | St. Truiden 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gent surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.36 xG and St. Truiden 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.155 / defence 0.945 | St. Truiden attack 1.140 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.321. Data: built from Gent's last 60 games and St. Truiden's last 60.

Result probabilities: Gent 36% | Draw 25% | St. Truiden 39%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.79 | Draw 3.94 | St. Truiden 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gent's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gent 60% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).

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