Gent 2-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Charleroi travel to GHELAMCO-arena to take on Gent. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gent — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gent's home record at GHELAMCO-arena: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gent are significantly better at GHELAMCO-arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 2W 4D 0L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 1W 2D 0L from 3 away outings — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 1.40 PPG versus Charleroi's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gent register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gent 60% and Charleroi 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 60% | Charleroi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.94 xG and Charleroi 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.386 / defence 0.958 | Charleroi attack 0.873 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.575. Gent carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Gent games / 6 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 52% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 26%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Charleroi 3.85. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 67% | Charleroi 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: GHELAMCO-arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 52% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Gent 1.94 / Charleroi 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.386 / def 0.958 | Charleroi attack 0.873 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Gent (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Charleroi xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at GHELAMCO-arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Gent 2 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at GHELAMCO-arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 52% chance of winning, Charleroi a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Charleroi in?
Gent (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.39) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.53
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Gent xG
Total xG
3.26
1.32
Charleroi xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
4%
26.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Gent and 1.32 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 0L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.40 PPG, Charleroi on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gent have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Charleroi in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gent and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gent at 60%, Charleroi at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gent) and 40% (Charleroi).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gent's games and 80% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Gent's recent games and 40% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Charleroi tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Gent 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Gent 2-3 at GHELAMCO-arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.94 xG and Charleroi 1.32 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.39 / defence 0.96 against Charleroi attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 52% | Draw 22% | Charleroi 26%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 60%, Charleroi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.40 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Gent shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.