Beerschot VA 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and St. Truiden meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games (0.17 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil.
St. Truiden (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.17 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
St. Truiden arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.17 vs 0.17) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 50% versus St. Truiden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 67% | St. Truiden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.68 xG and St. Truiden 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.571 / defence 1.189 | St. Truiden attack 0.659 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.581. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.571 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Beerschot VA games / 6 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Beerschot VA's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 0% | St. Truiden 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Beerschot VA 0.68 / St. Truiden 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.571 / def 1.189 | St. Truiden attack 0.659 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.24
St. Truiden xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kick off?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden part of?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 20% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Beerschot VA and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.57) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.66x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
20%
4.90
30%
3.34
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
1.92
1.24
St. Truiden xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.93
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 18.2 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.24 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, a 0.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beerschot VA heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 0.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
6
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, St. Truiden have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Beerschot VA) and 33% (St. Truiden) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Beerschot VA and 33% for St. Truiden.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 67%; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 100% of games; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 33% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.68 xG and St. Truiden 1.24 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.57 / defence 1.19 against St. Truiden attack 0.66 / defence 0.98, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 67%, St. Truiden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.