Charleroi 5-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 42%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Beerschot VA at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Charleroi — All Games: 1W 4D 0L from 5 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Charleroi have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 60% versus Beerschot VA 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 40% | Beerschot VA 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.13 xG and Beerschot VA 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.770 / defence 0.890 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.586. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Charleroi games / 5 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Beerschot VA 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 60% | Beerschot VA 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Charleroi 1.13 / Beerschot VA 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.770 / def 0.890 | Beerschot VA attack 0.966 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.586 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Beerschot VA xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Charleroi vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Charleroi 5 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA part of?
Charleroi vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 31% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and Beerschot VA in?
Charleroi (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.68
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.36
Beerschot VA xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.36 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 4D 0L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beerschot VA sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Charleroi or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when Charleroi won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
0
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Beerschot VA?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 60%, Beerschot VA 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charleroi) and 60% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Charleroi's recent matches and 40% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 60% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Beerschot VA 5-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.13 xG and Beerschot VA 1.36 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.77 / defence 0.89 against Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 1.44, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 42%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 40%, Beerschot VA 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.