Gent vs Charleroi Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Gent at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gent face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Planet Group Arena to take on Gent in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Gent — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gent's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Charleroi have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gent at 2.50 PPG versus Charleroi's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gent's 30% BTTS rate and Charleroi's 30% (from Gent's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 5 wins for Gent, 3 for Charleroi and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2026, ended Gent 3–2 Charleroi — a Gent win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gent in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 49% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 47% | Charleroi 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gent surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Charleroi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.46 xG and Charleroi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.100 / defence 0.648 | Charleroi attack 1.104 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.356. Charleroi bring a tight defence (rating 0.753, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gent's projected output down. Gent have a tight defence (rating 0.648), which is pulling Charleroi's projected output down. Data: built from Gent's last 41 games and Charleroi's last 41.
Result probabilities: Gent 49% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 25%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.06 | Draw 3.79 | Charleroi 3.99. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Gent's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gent 30% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 49% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Gent 1.46 / Charleroi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.100 / def 0.648 | Charleroi attack 1.104 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Gent (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gent vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Gent vs Charleroi kick off?
Gent vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Planet Group Arena.
Where is Gent vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Charleroi part of?
Gent vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 49% chance of winning, Charleroi a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gent and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Gent vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.10) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gent's last 41 games and Charleroi's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.79
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Gent xG
Total xG
2.43
0.97
Charleroi xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gent vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gent and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gent and 0.97 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 22W 14D 15L from 51 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 19L across 51 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.57 PPG, Charleroi on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 13W 7D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 13W 3D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.49 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Gent (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gent
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Gent vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Gent and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Charleroi away?
Gent's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.77 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gent or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charleroi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won Gent 5-0 Charleroi.
Gent's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gent
2
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Gent vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gent have won 5, Charleroi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Charleroi?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 46%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gent) and 42% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gent vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gent and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gent's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gent and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gent's recent games and 42% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Gent's recent matches and 73% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.