St. Truiden vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antwerp — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St. Truiden 1.50 PPG, Antwerp 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antwerp have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for St. Truiden.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with St. Truiden winning.
It is worth noting that Antwerp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 57% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 57% | Antwerp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.04 xG and Antwerp 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.837 / defence 1.116 | Antwerp attack 1.049 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.371. Data: 34 St. Truiden games / 34 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 25% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 50%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Antwerp 2.00. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Antwerp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 25% | Draw 25% | Antwerp 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG St. Truiden 1.04 / Antwerp 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.837 / def 1.116 | Antwerp attack 1.049 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Antwerp xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 25% chance of winning, Antwerp a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 3 | Antwerp 5W.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
25%
4.07
25%
4.01
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.65
1.60
Antwerp xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.60 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 23W 7D 14L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 19L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Antwerp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.86 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 52%, Antwerp 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 33% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antwerp in 33%; Antwerp in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 29% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of St. Truiden's recent games and 33% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.