Genk 1-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Genk (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genk face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Zulte Waregem meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.70 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Zulte Waregem's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Genk have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Zulte Waregem managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with Genk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Genk and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 58% versus Zulte Waregem 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 62% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.50 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.463 / defence 0.827 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.826 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.389. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Genk games / 53 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 71% | Draw 17% | Zulte Waregem 12%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Zulte Waregem 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Genk (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genk 80% | Zulte Waregem 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 71% | Draw 17% | Zulte Waregem 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 56% | xG Genk 2.50 / Zulte Waregem 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.463 / def 0.827 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.826 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Genk (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Genk vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Genk 1 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Genk vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Genk vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 71% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genk and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): Genk 3W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Genk and Zulte Waregem in?
Genk (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.46x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.83x) against Genk's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
71%
1.41
17%
6.02
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Genk xG
Total xG
3.44
0.95
Zulte Waregem xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
8%
12.12
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
1%
98.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Genk and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Genk and 0.95 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genk's recent record stands at 31W 7D 15L from 53 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 29L across 53 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genk have managed 19W 3D 4L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 4W 7D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.26 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 31W 7D 15L in their last 53 games (1.89 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 12W 12D 29L in their last 53 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Genk's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.31 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 2-6 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Genk
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Genk have won 5, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Zulte Waregem?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 62%, Zulte Waregem 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Genk) and 54% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Genk's games and 58% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Genk's matches and 54% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Genk and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Zulte Waregem 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Zulte Waregem 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.50 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.46 / defence 0.83 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 71% | Draw 17% | Zulte Waregem 12%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 62%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.