AS Eupen 0-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion am Kehrweg plays host to AS Eupen versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 14 January 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
AS Eupen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion am Kehrweg, AS Eupen have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for AS Eupen, 1.40 for St. Truiden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: AS Eupen 2W, St. Truiden 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with AS Eupen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 55% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.19 xG and St. Truiden 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.897 / defence 1.129 | St. Truiden attack 0.919 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.385. Data: 53 AS Eupen games / 53 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 43%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Eupen 50% | St. Truiden 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 31% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Eupen 1.19 / St. Truiden 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.897 / def 1.129 | St. Truiden attack 0.919 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.44
St. Truiden xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kick off?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
AS Eupen 0 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden part of?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 31% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Eupen and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 2W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.90) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.92x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
31%
3.20
26%
3.85
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.63
1.44
St. Truiden xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.44 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Eupen come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 9D 30L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.47 PPG from 53 outings (22W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AS Eupen's home form reads 7W 4D 15L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Eupen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 14W 9D 30L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 22W 12D 19L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.96 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.62 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AS Eupen
1
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 3, St. Truiden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 58%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Eupen) and 35% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 42%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 35% of games; St. Truiden in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 38% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Eupen's recent games and 35% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and St. Truiden tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat AS Eupen 0-2 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.19 xG and St. Truiden 1.44 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against St. Truiden attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 31% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 43%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.