Charleroi 2-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cercle Brugge at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cercle Brugge's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 2, Cercle Brugge 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Cercle Brugge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 51% versus Cercle Brugge 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 68% | Cercle Brugge 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.28 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.845 / defence 1.031 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.933 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.359. Data: 52 Charleroi games / 53 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Cercle Brugge 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Cercle Brugge 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Charleroi 1.28 / Cercle Brugge 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.845 / def 1.031 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.933 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cercle Brugge xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 2 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | Cercle Brugge 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.84) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.78
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.59
1.31
Cercle Brugge xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.31 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 7D 23L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 19W 14D 20L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.43 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.40 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 23W 7D 23L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Charleroi's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.41 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 44%, Cercle Brugge 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Charleroi) and 48% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Cercle Brugge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Charleroi's recent matches and 63% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Charleroi's recent games and 48% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Cercle Brugge 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.28 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.31 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 26% | Cercle Brugge 37%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 68%, Cercle Brugge 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.