Genk 0-3 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genk face Standard Liege.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genk stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Genk have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Standard Liege's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genk 1.50 PPG, Standard Liege 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Genk have won 2, Standard Liege 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Genk 1–2 Standard Liege — a Standard Liege win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genk trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Standard Liege trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 63% versus Standard Liege 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 58% | Standard Liege 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.46 xG and Standard Liege 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.076 / defence 1.040 | Standard Liege attack 0.655 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.317. Standard Liege's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Genk's last 55 games and Standard Liege's last 55.
Result probabilities: Genk 50% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 23%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.00 | Draw 3.66 | Standard Liege 4.40. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 70% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 50% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Genk 1.46 / Standard Liege 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.076 / def 1.040 | Standard Liege attack 0.655 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Genk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Standard Liege xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Genk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Genk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Genk 0 - 3 Standard Liege.
Where is Genk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Standard Liege part of?
Genk vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 50% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genk and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Genk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genk's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Standard Liege's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 55 games and Standard Liege's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.66
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Genk xG
Total xG
2.36
0.90
Standard Liege xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Genk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Genk and 0.90 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genk's recent record stands at 34W 14D 17L from 65 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 26L across 65 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genk have managed 19W 6D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 0.74 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 34W 14D 17L in their last 65 games (1.78 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Standard Liege away?
Genk's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.97 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Genk or Standard Liege been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Standard Liege in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won Genk 0-3 Standard Liege.
Genk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
3
Draws
4
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 53%, Standard Liege 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genk) and 34% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege in 31%; Standard Liege in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Standard Liege matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Genk's recent matches and 25% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Genk's recent games and 34% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Genk's recent matches and 62% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Standard Liege run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Genk 0-3 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.46 xG and Standard Liege 0.90 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Standard Liege outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Standard Liege attack 0.66 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 50% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 23%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liege win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 58%, Standard Liege 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.