Genk 1-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Genk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Anderlecht 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 63% | Anderlecht 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.11 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.834 / defence 0.840 | Anderlecht attack 0.881 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.272. Data: 38 Genk games / 38 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Anderlecht 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Anderlecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Genk 1.11 / Anderlecht 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.834 / def 0.840 | Anderlecht attack 0.881 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Genk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Anderlecht xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 1 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 39% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 0.83x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.88x) against Genk's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.31
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genk xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
Anderlecht xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genk and 0.94 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 22W 9D 7L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 14L across 38 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 8W 3D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 22W 9D 7L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.17 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 61%, Anderlecht 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Genk) and 39% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Genk's recent matches and 39% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Genk's recent games and 39% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Anderlecht finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Anderlecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 63%, Anderlecht 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.