Genk 1-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genk face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Genk have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Anderlecht have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Anderlecht 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 63% | Anderlecht 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.11 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.834 / defence 0.840 | Anderlecht attack 0.881 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.272. Data: built from Genk's last 38 games and Anderlecht's last 38.
Result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.55 | Draw 3.31 | Anderlecht 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 60% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Genk 1.11 / Anderlecht 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.834 / def 0.840 | Anderlecht attack 0.881 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Genk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Anderlecht xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 1 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 39% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 0.83x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.88x) against Genk's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 38 games and Anderlecht's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.31
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Genk xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
Anderlecht xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Genk and 0.94 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 22W 9D 7L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 14L across 38 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 12W 3D 3L from their last 18 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 8W 3D 7L across their last 18 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
Genk (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 22W 9D 7L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.17 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Genk and Anderlecht, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Anderlecht 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 61%, Anderlecht 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Genk) and 39% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Anderlecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Genk's recent matches and 39% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Genk's recent games and 39% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Genk's recent matches and 56% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Anderlecht finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.11 xG and Anderlecht 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Anderlecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 39% | Draw 30% | Anderlecht 30%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 63%, Anderlecht 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.