Charleroi 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 1.30 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Charleroi, 1 for St. Truiden and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus St. Truiden 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 55% | St. Truiden 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.25 xG and St. Truiden 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.880 / defence 0.965 | St. Truiden attack 0.993 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.273. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 39 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | St. Truiden 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Charleroi 1.25 / St. Truiden 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.880 / def 0.965 | St. Truiden attack 0.993 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.22
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs St. Truiden kick off?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Charleroi vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs St. Truiden part of?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 37% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.68
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.47
1.22
St. Truiden xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.22 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 9D 15L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (13W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.34 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charleroi's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.05 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or St. Truiden away?
Charleroi's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.39 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and St. Truiden?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 61%, St. Truiden 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 44% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 33%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Charleroi's recent matches and 44% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charleroi's recent games and 44% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and St. Truiden finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.25 xG and St. Truiden 1.22 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 36%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 55%, St. Truiden 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.34 PPG, St. Truiden 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.