Dender 1-4 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and St. Truiden meet at Dender Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Dender's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dender's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
St. Truiden (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, St. Truiden have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
St. Truiden arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2025, ended Dender 0–2 St. Truiden — a St. Truiden win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
St. Truiden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 56% and St. Truiden 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 52% | St. Truiden 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dender surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while St. Truiden have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 0.95 xG and St. Truiden 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.807 / defence 1.203 | St. Truiden attack 1.328 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.295. St. Truiden have an above-average attack rating of 1.328, which lifts their away xG to 2.07. Dender's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St. Truiden's projected output up. Data: built from Dender's last 55 games and St. Truiden's last 55.
Result probabilities: Dender 16% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 63%. Fair-value odds: Dender 6.21 | Draw 4.75 | St. Truiden 1.59. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dender's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dender 50% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 16% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Dender 0.95 / St. Truiden 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.807 / def 1.203 | St. Truiden attack 1.328 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Dender xG
Expected Goals
2.07
St. Truiden xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Dender vs St. Truiden kick off?
Dender vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs St. Truiden?
Dender 1 - 4 St. Truiden.
Where is Dender vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs St. Truiden part of?
Dender vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 16% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dender and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dender vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dender's attack at 0.81x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.33x) against Dender's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 55 games and St. Truiden's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
16%
6.21
21%
4.75
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Dender xG
Total xG
3.02
2.07
St. Truiden xG
6.21
16%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
2%
49.17
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dender and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Dender and 2.07 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dender's recent record stands at 12W 18D 31L from 61 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 21L across 61 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St. Truiden by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dender have managed 7W 10D 13L from their last 30 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.48 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 66%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Dender (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Dender vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Dender and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 12W 18D 31L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 26W 14D 21L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.03 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won Dender 1-4 St. Truiden on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dender
1
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and St. Truiden?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 1, St. Truiden have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dender and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Dender 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Dender and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 47%, St. Truiden 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dender) and 63% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Dender have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Dender's games and 70% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dender and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dender's recent games and 63% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Dender's recent matches and 77% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Dender 1-4 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.95 xG and St. Truiden 2.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against St. Truiden attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 16% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 63%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 52%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.