Dender 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and St. Truiden meet at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Dender's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at DENDER Football Complex this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
St. Truiden (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, St. Truiden have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Dender's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of St. Truiden's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dender, 0 for St. Truiden and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
St. Truiden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 56% and St. Truiden 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 52% | St. Truiden 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.662 / defence 1.175 | St. Truiden attack 1.004 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.096. Dender's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Dender's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Dender games / 54 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 33% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 35%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | St. Truiden 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dender (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Dender 50% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 33% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Dender 1.26 / St. Truiden 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.662 / def 1.175 | St. Truiden attack 1.004 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.29
St. Truiden xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs St. Truiden kick off?
Dender vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs St. Truiden?
Dender 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Dender vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs St. Truiden part of?
Dender vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 33% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dender and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Dender 0W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Dender and St. Truiden in?
Dender (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dender's attack at 0.66x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.00x) against Dender's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Dender xG
Total xG
2.56
1.29
St. Truiden xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dender and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Dender and 1.29 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dender's recent record stands at 22W 16D 16L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 21L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Dender against 1.17 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dender have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 6D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.24 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or St. Truiden away?
Dender's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.44 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dender or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 1-4 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dender
1
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and St. Truiden?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 1, St. Truiden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Dender 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Dender and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 56%, St. Truiden 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dender) and 63% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dender's games and 59% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dender's recent games and 63% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat St. Truiden 2-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.26 xG and St. Truiden 1.29 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.66 / defence 1.18 against St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.27, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 33% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 35%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 52%, St. Truiden 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.52 PPG, St. Truiden 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.