Charleroi 5-0 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Charleroi welcome Dender to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dender — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Charleroi) versus 1.20 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charleroi, 1 for Dender and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Dender winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dender in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus Dender 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 45% | Dender 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.36 xG and Dender 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.848 / defence 0.973 | Dender attack 0.996 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.115. Data: 53 Charleroi games / 23 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Dender 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 50% | Dender 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Charleroi 1.36 / Dender 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.848 / def 0.973 | Dender attack 0.996 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dender xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Dender kick off?
Charleroi vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Charleroi 5 - 0 Dender.
Where is Charleroi vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Dender part of?
Charleroi vs Dender is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, Dender a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charleroi and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Dender 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Dender in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Dender (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.97
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
Dender xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.08 for Dender, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 10D 23L from 53 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 15L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.32 PPG, Dender on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 13W 5D 8L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 12W 7D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.55 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Dender in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Dender have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Dender away?
Charleroi's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.69 PPG; Dender away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dender in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Dender specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Dender have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Dender?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, Dender 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Charleroi) and 58% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dender in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 58% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Charleroi's recent games and 58% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Dender tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Dender in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Dender 5-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Dender attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 34% | Dender 26%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Dender 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Dender 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.