Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Beerschot VA face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beerschot VA stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Beerschot VA have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Charleroi have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Beerschot VA. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Beerschot VA 0–3 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Charleroi have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Beerschot VA in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 59% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.787 / defence 1.405 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.095. Beerschot VA's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Beerschot VA's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 24 games and Charleroi's last 54.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.64 | Draw 3.16 | Charleroi 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 60% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.15 / Charleroi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.787 / def 1.405 | Charleroi attack 0.931 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs Charleroi kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Charleroi part of?
Beerschot VA vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 27% chance of winning, Charleroi a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beerschot VA and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 24 games and Charleroi's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
27%
3.64
32%
3.16
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Charleroi xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.43 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 19W 12D 23L from 54 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 23L across 54 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.28 PPG, Charleroi on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 9W 10D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 10D 23L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Charleroi away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.37 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Aug 2021, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-2 Beerschot VA.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Charleroi?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 0, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Beerschot VA 1-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 52%, Charleroi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beerschot VA) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 33% of games; Charleroi in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 41% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beerschot VA and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Beerschot VA and Charleroi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Beerschot VA and Charleroi drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.41 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 32% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 59%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG, Charleroi 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.