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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dender and Charleroi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 28, as Dender and Charleroi drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.01 xG and Charleroi 1.78 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.83 / defence 1.33 against Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dender 21% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 55%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dender's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights