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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 18, as Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.92 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.98 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Union St. Gilloise 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights