Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 8 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Charleroi.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Union St. Gilloise 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.92 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.843 / defence 0.820 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.074 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.115. Data: 47 Charleroi games / 47 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Union St. Gilloise 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 33% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Charleroi 0.92 / Union St. Gilloise 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.843 / def 0.820 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.074 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Union St. Gilloise xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 33% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 8W.
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.15
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Charleroi xG
Total xG
1.90
0.98
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.98 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 22W 14D 21L from 57 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 35W 15D 7L across 57 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 9D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.81 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 35W 15D 7L in their last 57 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.81 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 48%, Union St. Gilloise 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Charleroi) and 41% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 41%; Union St. Gilloise in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charleroi's recent matches and 48% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Charleroi's recent games and 41% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 18, as Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.92 xG and Union St. Gilloise 0.98 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 33% | Draw 32% | Union St. Gilloise 36%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, Union St. Gilloise 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.