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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.95 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.02 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 38% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights