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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Charleroi take on Union St. Gilloise.

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Analysis & Preview

A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.

Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Charleroi) versus 1.70 (Union St. Gilloise). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Union St. Gilloise have the better historical record — 7 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Charleroi.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.

It is worth noting that Union St. Gilloise have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Charleroi trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Union St. Gilloise trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus Union St. Gilloise 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.95 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.814 / defence 0.921 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.024 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.081. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Charleroi games / 50 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 38% | Union St. Gilloise 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Union St. Gilloise 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 40% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.

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