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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 2, as Charleroi and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.64 xG and St. Truiden 1.08 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against St. Truiden attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 21%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 49%, St. Truiden 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights