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Poisson rates Charleroi at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs St. Truiden encounter.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 18:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

St. Truiden's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 2.10 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for St. Truiden and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Charleroi in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

St. Truiden in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 57% and St. Truiden 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 49% | St. Truiden 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.64 xG and St. Truiden 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.966 / defence 0.974 | St. Truiden attack 1.023 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.082. Data: 31 Charleroi games / 31 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Charleroi 47% | Draw 32% | St. Truiden 21%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | St. Truiden 4.76. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | St. Truiden 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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