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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out St. Truiden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.69 xG and St. Truiden 0.89 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 53% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 16%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, St. Truiden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.22 PPG, St. Truiden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights