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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Charleroi host St. Truiden at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

St. Truiden's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 0.80 PPG versus St. Truiden's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for St. Truiden and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Charleroi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Charleroi in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

St. Truiden in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 46% versus St. Truiden 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | St. Truiden 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.69 xG and St. Truiden 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.750 / defence 0.932 | St. Truiden attack 0.951 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.008. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Charleroi games / 48 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 16%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | St. Truiden 6.25. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 30% | St. Truiden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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