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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.78 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against OH Leuven attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights