Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KVC Westerlo at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours Charleroi — this Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KVC Westerlo travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group - 38). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KVC Westerlo — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.40 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Charleroi: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for KVC Westerlo, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2026, ended Charleroi 0–2 KVC Westerlo — a KVC Westerlo win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Charleroi and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus KVC Westerlo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | KVC Westerlo 54%). Note also that KVC Westerlo surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Charleroi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.12 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.996 / defence 1.139 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.889 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: built from Charleroi's last 60 games and KVC Westerlo's last 60.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | KVC Westerlo 42%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.20 | Draw 3.69 | KVC Westerlo 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KVC Westerlo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 70% (last 10 home games) | KVC Westerlo 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 38 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | KVC Westerlo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charleroi 1.12 / KVC Westerlo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.996 / def 1.139 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.889 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.34
KVC Westerlo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi 0 - 1 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Group - 38) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 31% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and KVC Westerlo will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.00) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 60 games and KVC Westerlo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.69
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.46
1.34
KVC Westerlo xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.34 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 30W 18D 29L from 77 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 29L across 77 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.40 PPG, KVC Westerlo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 17W 9D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 11W 10D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.52 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs KVC Westerlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
KVC Westerlo
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 30W 18D 29L in their last 77 games (1.40 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 26W 22D 29L in their last 77 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Charleroi's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.62 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when Charleroi won KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
Charleroi's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, KVC Westerlo 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 46% (KVC Westerlo).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; KVC Westerlo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and KVC Westerlo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 51% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 46% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and KVC Westerlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Charleroi's recent matches and 76% of KVC Westerlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KVC Westerlo edge out Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 38, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.12 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 27% | KVC Westerlo 42%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, KVC Westerlo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.