Standard Liege 0-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Standard Liege host Genk at Maurice Dufrasnestadion in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Standard Liege have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Maurice Dufrasnestadion this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Genk have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Standard Liege at 1.80 PPG versus Genk's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Standard Liege register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Genk in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Standard Liege, 3 for Genk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Genk in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 39% versus Genk 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 38% | Genk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.45 xG and Genk 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.812 / defence 0.920 | Genk attack 1.272 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Standard Liege's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Standard Liege games / 60 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 36% | Draw 24% | Genk 40%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Genk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 60% | Genk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 38 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 36% | Draw 24% | Genk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Standard Liege 1.45 / Genk 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.812 / def 0.920 | Genk attack 1.272 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Genk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Genk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Genk kick off?
Standard Liege vs Genk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Standard Liege 0 - 0 Genk.
Where is Standard Liege vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Genk part of?
Standard Liege vs Genk is a Conference League Group - 38 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 36% chance of winning, Genk a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Standard Liege and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Genk?
Record (9 meetings): Standard Liege 4W | Draws 2 | Genk 3W.
What form are Standard Liege and Genk in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.81x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.12
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
3.00
1.55
Genk xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.55 for Genk, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 25W 24D 28L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 39W 18D 20L from 77 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (12W 13D 13L).
On the road, Genk have gone 17W 9D 12L from 38 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.61 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 61%.
Last 77 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Genk in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 25W 24D 28L in their last 77 games (1.29 PPG), while Genk have gone 39W 18D 20L in their last 77 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.29 PPG; Genk away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Standard Liege or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Standard Liege have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Genk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Genk specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Standard Liege
3
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 4, Genk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Genk?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 47%, Genk 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Standard Liege) and 68% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Standard Liege's games and 74% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liege vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Standard Liege's recent games and 68% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Genk tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liege's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Conference League Group - 38, as Standard Liege and Genk drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.45 xG and Genk 1.55 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liege fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Genk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Genk attack 1.27 / defence 1.34, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 36% | Draw 24% | Genk 40%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 38%, Genk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genk's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.