🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Antwerp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Antwerp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Antwerp — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Charleroi — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 53% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.24 xG and Charleroi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.940 / defence 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.930 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Antwerp games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antwerp 38% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 35%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights