Charleroi vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Kortrijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 1.90 PPG lead over Kortrijk (2.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Charleroi have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 10 meetings, with Kortrijk managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Charleroi winning.
The historical record gives Charleroi a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Kortrijk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 41% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.61 xG and Kortrijk 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.282 / defence 1.089 | Kortrijk attack 0.516 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Charleroi games / 8 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 78% | Draw 14% | Kortrijk 8%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Kortrijk 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 78% | Draw 14% | Kortrijk 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 48% | xG Charleroi 2.61 / Kortrijk 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.282 / def 1.089 | Kortrijk attack 0.516 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Kortrijk xG
48%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Kortrijk kick off?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Kortrijk part of?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 78% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charleroi and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 7W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.28) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.52x) against Charleroi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
78%
1.29
14%
6.99
8%
12.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.34
0.73
Kortrijk xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.99
14%
Draw
12.29
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
7%
13.57
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
1%
166.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.73 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 18W 6D 15L from 39 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 21W 4D 14L across 39 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Charleroi against 1.72 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.49 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 6D 15L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 14L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Kortrijk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.47 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Charleroi have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
2
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, Kortrijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 58%, Kortrijk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 53% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kortrijk in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Charleroi's recent matches and 42% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charleroi's recent games and 53% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.