Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zulte Waregem (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face RAAL La Louvière.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RAAL La Louvière make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
RAAL La Louvière have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Zulte Waregem. A 2.00 PPG lead over RAAL La Louvière (2.40 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Zulte Waregem, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against RAAL La Louvière — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 4–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The historical record gives Zulte Waregem a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus RAAL La Louvière 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 55% | RAAL La Louvière 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.85 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / defence 0.824 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.830 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 34 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 19%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | RAAL La Louvière 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 40% | RAAL La Louvière 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 58% | Draw 22% | RAAL La Louvière 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.85 / RAAL La Louvière 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.108 / def 0.824 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.830 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RAAL La Louvière xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 58% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 3W | Draws 3 | RAAL La Louvière 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.11) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.83x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.44
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.81
0.95
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
33.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.95 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 11D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, RAAL La Louvière sit at 0.88 PPG from 40 outings (7W 14D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, RAAL La Louvière have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (3W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 0.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 7W 14D 19L in their last 40 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.70 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zulte Waregem won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
3
Draws
0
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zulte Waregem 4-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, RAAL La Louvière 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zulte Waregem) and 65% (RAAL La Louvière). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zulte Waregem's games and 65% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 65% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do Zulte Waregem and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.