Kortrijk vs St. Truiden – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 70% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host St. Truiden at Guldensporen Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 8W 0D 2L at Guldensporen Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
St. Truiden have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Kortrijk's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that St. Truiden have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 51% versus St. Truiden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | St. Truiden 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.14 xG and St. Truiden 2.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.729 / defence 1.460 | St. Truiden attack 1.362 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.362. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden have an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — the away xG of 2.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Kortrijk games / 34 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 14% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 70%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 7.14 | Draw 6.25 | St. Truiden 1.43. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 70% | St. Truiden 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Guldensporen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 14% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 63% | xG Kortrijk 1.14 / St. Truiden 2.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.729 / def 1.460 | St. Truiden attack 1.362 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
2.71
St. Truiden xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Guldensporen Stadion.
Where is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporen Stadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden part of?
Kortrijk vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 14% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 70% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kortrijk and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
Record (10 meetings): Kortrijk 2W | Draws 3 | St. Truiden 5W.
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kortrijk's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 2.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
14%
7.36
16%
6.28
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
3.85
2.71
St. Truiden xG
7.36
14%
Home win
6.28
16%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
7%
15.00
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
1%
110.37
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.71 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Kortrijk have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 20W 4D 11L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden's form line: 19W 5D 11L from 35 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 1.83 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kortrijk have posted 2.39 PPG from 18 outings (14W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Kortrijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 9W 2D 7L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.63 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 11L in their last 35 games (1.83 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 19W 5D 11L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or St. Truiden away?
Kortrijk's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 2.39 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Kortrijk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kortrijk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kortrijk
3
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 2, St. Truiden have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Kortrijk 2-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 56%, St. Truiden 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Kortrijk and 67% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Kortrijk's games and 61% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kortrijk's matches and 67% of St. Truiden's.
Do Kortrijk and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.