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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Genk 2-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.82 xG and Genk 1.96 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genk landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Genk attack 1.29 / defence 1.37, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 21% | Genk 42%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 45%, Genk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Genk's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.36 PPG, Genk 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights