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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi and Genk finished level at 2-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.16 xG and Genk 0.91 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Genk attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 41% | Draw 31% | Genk 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Genk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights