Charleroi 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 41%, yet in-form Genk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 19 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genk in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Charleroi 1W, Genk 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.16 xG and Genk 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.857 / defence 0.828 | Genk attack 0.990 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.112. Data: 48 Charleroi games / 48 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 31% | Genk 28%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Genk 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 60% | Genk 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 19 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 41% | Draw 31% | Genk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Charleroi 1.16 / Genk 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.857 / def 0.828 | Genk attack 0.990 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Genk xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 December 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 41% chance of winning, Genk a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (7 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 3 | Genk 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.86) and Genk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.99x) against Charleroi's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.21
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.08
0.91
Genk xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.91 for Genk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 15D 21L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 31W 12D 15L from 58 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (14W 8D 6L).
On the road, Genk have gone 13W 7D 8L from 28 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.57 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Genk have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.79 PPG; Genk away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 50%, Genk 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Charleroi) and 61% (Genk).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Charleroi's games and 68% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Charleroi's recent games and 61% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Genk finished level at 2-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.16 xG and Genk 0.91 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Genk attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 41% | Draw 31% | Genk 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.