Charleroi vs Genk – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 28, as Charleroi and Genk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.49 xG and Genk 1.23 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Genk attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 31% | Genk 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Genk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights