Charleroi 3-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host AS Eupen at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
AS Eupen — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charleroi at 1.60 PPG versus AS Eupen's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 58% and AS Eupen 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 50% | AS Eupen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.14 xG and AS Eupen 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.848 / defence 0.956 | AS Eupen attack 1.094 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.503. Data: 12 Charleroi games / 12 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 47%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | AS Eupen 2.13. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Eupen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 33% | AS Eupen 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 28% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Charleroi 1.14 / AS Eupen 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.848 / def 0.956 | AS Eupen attack 1.094 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.57
AS Eupen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs AS Eupen kick off?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Charleroi 3 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Charleroi vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs AS Eupen part of?
Charleroi vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 28% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charleroi and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.85x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
28%
3.62
25%
3.99
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.71
1.57
AS Eupen xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.43
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.57 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 5W 5D 2L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.67 PPG, AS Eupen on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.67 PPG overall record — AS Eupen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.92 scored and 1.42 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or AS Eupen away?
AS Eupen's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.33 PPG; AS Eupen away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Charleroi won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Charleroi
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
From 8 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 7, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when AS Eupen 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and AS Eupen?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 33%, AS Eupen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Charleroi) and 83% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charleroi's recent matches and 67% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Charleroi's recent games and 83% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat AS Eupen 3-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.14 xG and AS Eupen 1.57 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against AS Eupen attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 28% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 47%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 50%, AS Eupen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.67 PPG, AS Eupen 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.